Live signal validation

Does the Gap Score
predict anything?

We track four measurable outcomes after every high-gap story: stock movement, prediction market movement, legacy media catch-up time, and public search interest. This page shows the correlation between our signal and those outcomes — live, with case-level drill-down.

We're early. Sample sizes are small. Read the methodology and draw your own conclusions.

7 stories trackedUpdated Apr 17, 2026

Recent predictions

Apr 17Gap 54· Claude Opus 4.7 Release

If this gap is real, design-adjacent stocks (ADBE, WIX, FIG) will show unusual movement within 72h of detection — an advanced AI model release signals competitive pressure on existing creative tools.

Pending (52h remaining)

Gap closure rate

Did legacy media eventually cover the story?
—
High gap score
score > 70
Building the dataset. No stories have crossed the 72-hour measurement window yet. Measurements begin 7 days after a story is tracked.
—
Mid gap score
score 40–70
Building the dataset. No stories have crossed the 72-hour measurement window yet. Measurements begin 7 days after a story is tracked.
—
Low gap score
score < 40
Building the dataset. No stories have crossed the 72-hour measurement window yet. Measurements begin 7 days after a story is tracked.

Individual story outcomes

0 of 5 gaps closed
FDA Supplement Crackdowns vs Community Response
Health · detected Mar 27
66
gap
Claude Opus 4.7 Release
AI Tech · detected Apr 16· ADBE WIX FIG
54
gap
+0%
T+7d
Recent UAP Sightings and Reports
UAP · detected Apr 10
51
gap
International UAP Incidents
UAP · detected Apr 10
10
gap
Pentagon UAP Program Declassified
UAP · detected Mar 26
0
gap

Showing 5 stories · sorted by gap score · misses included

What we don't claim

≠
Correlation ≠ causation

A high Gap Score means social media discussed something before mainstream media covered it. It does not mean GapWatch caused the story to break, or that the social discussion was accurate.

📉
We show misses

High-gap stories sometimes go nowhere. The denominators in every stat include stories where the predicted outcome didn't materialise. We show the full count.

📊
Small samples

Stats with N < 20 have warning badges. They are directional signals, not statistically significant findings. The sample grows nightly as more stories cross their measurement window.

🔬
What we measure

Gap Score = ratio of social discussion to legacy media coverage at detection time. Outcomes = what happened in the 7–30 days after. The relationship is empirical, not theoretical.

How are gap scores computed? Read the methodology →

Outcomes updated nightly · 2:00 AM UTC · last run Apr 17, 2026