Live signal validation

Does the Gap Score
predict anything?

We measure two things: whether mainstream media covers the story within 7 days (gap closure), and whether predicted price moves occur within 72 hours (signal strength). This page shows both — live, with case-level drill-down.

We're early. Sample sizes are small. Read the methodology and draw your own conclusions.

56 stories trackedUpdated Jun 14, 2026

Gap closure rate

Did mainstream media cover the story within 7 days of detection?
Showing: Health
Early signal
0% closure · n = 5
High gap score
score > 70
Confidence: low — rate may shift meaningfully as data accumulates (need n ≥ 20 to stabilise).
Building sample size
1 of 5 minimum stories measured
Mid gap score
score 40–70
Measurements begin 7 days after a story is tracked. Updates nightly.
Building sample size
0 of 5 minimum stories measured
Low gap score
score < 40
Measurements begin 7 days after a story is tracked. Updates nightly.

Related stock move at T+7d

Avg absolute % change for stories with ticker entities
High gap score
score > 70
n = 0
±5.39%
Mid gap score
score 40–70
n = 3
Low gap score
score < 40
n = 0

Individual story outcomes

0 of 6 measured gaps closed · showing 8 most recent
Biohacking Longevity
Health · detected Jun 13
62
at detection
pending (1d)
66
at detection
0%0%
msm
7d · no coverage
100
at detection
0%0%
msm
7d · no coverage
Testosterone Optimization & TRT
Health · detected Mar 27
100
at detection
0%0%
msm
7d · no coverage
Lion's Mane & Cognitive Nootropics
Health · detected Mar 27
95
at detection
0%0%
msm
7d · no coverage
Psychedelic Therapy Clinical Trials
Health · detected Mar 27
100
at detection
0%0%
msm
7d · no coverage
NMN & NAD+ Longevity Research
Health · detected Mar 27
94
at detection
0%0%
msm
7d · no coverage
78
at detection
7d · no coverage

Sorted by detection date · misses included

What we don't claim

Correlation ≠ causation

A high Gap Score means social media discussed something before mainstream media covered it. It does not mean GapWatch caused the story to break, or that the social discussion was accurate.

📉
We show misses

High-gap stories sometimes go nowhere. The denominators in every stat include stories where the predicted outcome didn't materialise. We show the full count.

📊
Small samples

Stats with n < 20 are labelled "Early signal." Below n < 5, we don't publish a rate at all — just a progress count. The sample grows nightly as more stories cross their 7-day measurement window.

🔬
What we measure

Gap Score = ratio of social discussion to mainstream media coverage at detection time. Outcomes = what happened in the 7–30 days after. The relationship is empirical, not theoretical.

How are gap scores computed? Read the methodology →

Outcomes updated nightly · 2:00 AM UTC · last run Jun 14, 2026