Does the Gap Score
predict anything?
We measure two things: whether mainstream media covers the story within 7 days (gap closure), and whether predicted price moves occur within 72 hours (signal strength). This page shows both — live, with case-level drill-down.
We're early. Sample sizes are small. Read the methodology and draw your own conclusions.
Gap closure rate
Did mainstream media cover the story within 7 days of detection?Related stock move at T+7d
Avg absolute % change for stories with ticker entitiesIndividual story outcomes
0 of 3 measured gaps closed · showing 10 most recentSorted by detection date · misses included
What we don't claim
A high Gap Score means social media discussed something before mainstream media covered it. It does not mean GapWatch caused the story to break, or that the social discussion was accurate.
High-gap stories sometimes go nowhere. The denominators in every stat include stories where the predicted outcome didn't materialise. We show the full count.
Stats with n < 20 are labelled "Early signal." Below n < 5, we don't publish a rate at all — just a progress count. The sample grows nightly as more stories cross their 7-day measurement window.
Gap Score = ratio of social discussion to mainstream media coverage at detection time. Outcomes = what happened in the 7–30 days after. The relationship is empirical, not theoretical.
How are gap scores computed? Read the methodology →
Outcomes updated nightly · 2:00 AM UTC · last run Sep 12, 2026